What will Marco Rubio mean for US foreign policy?
That has left big questions about the type of diplomat Rubio will be.
U.S.-China Relations
Rubio was arguably the most hawkish option on the shortlist for the post, and is known as a hardliner on China. He was sanctioned by Beijing in 2020 over his stance on Hong Kong following democracy protests. Director of the SOAS China Institute Steve Tsang told Reuters that Rubio’s selection would put China in a potentially tough position. “China will have to lift its sanctions against Rubio. Otherwise, they cannot talk to the U.S. Secretary of State, which is simply not an acceptable situation for either country to be in.”
Tsang believes China won’t want to be “accommodating” of U.S. senior officials. As a result, he anticipates that Chinese President Xi Jinping will push to skip over Rubio and pursue a direct line with Trump. “I think what we are going to see as a result is that the Chinese government are likely to put Xi Jinping to engage directly with Donald Trump much more than has happened under the Biden administration. Xi believes that he could work his magic on Donald Trump as he had done in the first Trump administration.”
Ukraine
The choice of Rubio as Secretary of State could come as some relief to U.S. partners worried that the Trump administration could pull back from its global network of alliances, including NATO. When he tapped Rubio for the job, Trump said quote: “He will be a strong Advocate for our Nation, a true friend to our Allies, and a fearless Warrior who will never back down to our adversaries.”
The Ukraine crisis will be high on Rubio‘s agenda. He has said in recent interviews that Ukraine needs to seek a negotiated settlement with Russia rather than focus on regaining all territory that Russia has taken over the last decade. Earlier this year he voted against a big military aid package for Ukraine, Israel and other U.S. partners. Rubio told NBC in September quote “I’m not on Russia’s side — but unfortunately the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement.”
Sanctions
Trump’s pick of Rubio could signal stricter enforcement of oil sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Iran’s oil production has been the target of successive waves of restrictions. During Trump’s first term, oil exports from the third-largest producer in OPEC slowed to a trickle. While Rubio could push foreign partners to enforce existing sanctions, that could also risk retaliation by major buyers of Iranian crude, like China, which could reduce the primacy of the dollar in oil trades.
Rubio has also been a fierce critic of Venezuela’s socialist President Nicolas Maduro. Meaning his appointment suggests an improvement in relations between the U.S. and Venezuela is unlikely. However, analysts have warned that tougher sanctions could prompt the OPEC nation to boycott Trump’s goal of repatriating thousands of illegal migrants.
